Global turmoil & analysis

Early this morning around one Eastern Standard Time, the long-anticipated war against Iran began. It started with Tomahawk Missiles fired from U.S Naval vessels, and between the Israeli and US Air Force, a combined 200 plans started to strike Iran. The leader of the Iranian Regime was killed early on. but due to the level of destruction, his body was found and identified only a few hours ago. Since the initial attacks, strikes by the U.S. and Israeli militaries have continued nonstop across Iran. In turn Iran has been firing missiles and drones at various locations in Isreal, Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, and the UAE, resulting in several deaths and injuries. This is an ongoing, chaotic, and very historic situation. 

The title of this post is referring to the rapidly escalating war between Pakistan and the Taliban. I use the term war because, shortly after I put up the post for yesterday, a government official in Pakistan said, "we (Pakistan) are in an open war with Afghanistan". In this post I will list some of the most notable developments since yesterday. Today, an unknown number of drones operated by the Taliban, struck buildings in Islamabad, the capitol city of Pakistan. The head of the TTP (Taliban in Pakistan) called for new attacks including suicide bombings. Pakistan has carried out more airstrikes including in the Afghan capital city of Kabul. Perhaps the most concerning development is several different terrorist groups both from Afghanistan and Pakistan are reported to be mobilizing to participate in fighting against Pakistan. One of the most challenging factors of this war is, the two largest and most dangerous groups in Afghanistan (ISKP and Al-Qaeda) are not participating i...

 Last Saturday, I mentioned in the post that Pakistan was carrying out airstrikes in Afghanistan that day.  Today, the Taliban launched what they are calling retaliatory attacks against Pakistan. The attacks started several hours ago, and they are still happening as I write this post. The duration, and violence of the attacks, suggest that rather than a wave of attacks, the Taliban launched a war. Three developments make me think that is the case, and I will list the three in the next paragraph to close this post. The first development that makes me think that this is the start of a war is, there are reports that the Taliban have captured several military outposts in Pakistan. Second, Pakistan is conducting more airstrikes in Afghanistan, that are happening as I type. The third and biggest reason, that I think this is the start of a war is, after the attacks began today a spokesman for the Taliban referring to a response from Pakistan said " they (Pakistan) are so proud of the...

 ISWAP, is a branch of ISIS. As is the case with most terrorist organizations, it can be difficult to understand the alliances between the groups and branches of the groups themselves. ISWAP is based in the Sahel Region of Africa (region discussed in a previous post on this blog). Yesterday, in the Adamawa state of Nigeria, ISWAP attacked two villages in the state. It is said that the attackers were wearing military uniforms during the attacks to deceive the residents of the two villages. By the time the attacks were over several houses had been set on fire, 25 people were killed, several were injured, and the head of one of the villages was abducted by the terrorists.

On this date four years ago, Russia launched their full-scale invasion of the country of Ukraine. The term full- scale is an important term regarding the invasion, because Russia had been fighting a small-scale war in Eastern Ukraine since 2014, after Russia illegally annexed Crimea. I am writing this post to remember those who have been killed fighting for Ukraine, and the thousands of Ukrainian children who have been kidnapped by the Russian military, taken to Russia, adopted by Russian adults, and in some cases forced to fight against their country of birth. I am also writing this post to in a way memorialize the significance of this data because something has changed in the world since that day in 2022, I also think in years to come the invasion of Ukraine will be remembered as the beginning of WW3. The country of Ukraine is mostly seven hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time, with three regions eight hours ahead. It was the night of February 23 in the United States when the invasion...

On Sunday, the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel died from his injuries that were sustained during a raid to arrest him. The raid was conducted Sunday morning by Mexican Special Forces, allegedly based on intelligence provided by the United States. Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes was the founder and leader of the cartel that is said to be the largest criminal organization in Mexico. The exact details of the raid are unclear, but fighting between the Mexican Military and the cartel broke out across several Mexican States after the raid (the number of casualties to this point are unclear). Shortly after the fighting began, the United States Embassy in Mexico urged all U.S. citizens in the country to "shelter in place." (this warning remains in place as of the writing of this post) Many flights to and from Mexico have been cancelled so far, as the situation remains very volatile. Statement from me, as of Monday the Mexican government claimed the situation was under control,...

 In this post I am going to briefly list the main developments just today in the Middle East. Just today, the spokesman for ISIS called for Jihad against the government in Syria, ISIS has conducted two attacks in Syria (each attack in different parts of the country), Pakistan resumed airstrikes in Afghanistan, and the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionize Guard Corps) has moved troops to the Iranian border with Iraq. The list in the previous paragraph is not exhaustive; it only lists the most notable developments for today in the region.  I purposely left off of the list the most notable development because it is on its own in terms of magnitude and it has not happened yet.  That development is that by time I do the post on Monday there is a strong possibility that the U.S attack on Iran will have started.

 In the recent past I have talked a lot about a potential major resurgence of ISIS, and Islamic Terrorism in general, largely due to the events currently taking place in Syria. Today U.S intelligence released numbers which estimate that there are currently fifteen to twenty thousand members of ISIS in Syria. To put the numbers in the previous paragraph into context, (15-20,000) at the height of the ISIS Caliphate in the mid 2010s, they had an estimated fifty thousand fighters. Grant it part of the current numbers are wives and children of militants, but if you know about wives and children in these groups then you know that they make up some of the number is far from comforting. Now about the part of the title that says, "pay attention to the Middle East". It actually is not about ISIS, rather it is about recent actions regarding Iran by recent I mean today. Over the last several days the United States military has been sailing and flying many assets to areas within striking ...

 This week, the UN Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team released a report, to assess the state of Afghanistan regarding terror groups located there. The report says ISIS, Al-Qaeda, Al-Shabaab, and others have a substantial presence in the country. In this post I will mention some of the obvious global consequences if this report is accurate and briefly describe how this perfectly fits what I have stated before... that the ultimate goal of the shared ideology among these groups is a global caliphate. The report states that Al-Qaeda is primarily focused on "spectacular external attacks". It goes on to assess that outside of the Taliban every group in the country has ambitions to or is already conducting operations in other countries, including TTP, otherwise known as the Pakistani Taliban, who has already started carrying out attacks in Pakistan.  The details in the previous paragraph are concerning enough by themselves, but that is not all the report says. It goes ...

The title of this post is referring to the news coming out today confirming that all U.S Forces are being withdrawn from Syria. In this post I will list the past cases that inform my opinion that withdrawal is a terrible idea, and at the end of this post I will mention a case that proves my argument that U.S Forces should remain in Syria.  In 2011, the United States withdrew from Iraq. By 2014 the leader of ISIS at the time announced himself to be a caliph and declared the beginning of a caliphate. In August of 2021 the U.S completed their withdraw from Afghanistan. There is strong evidence (and logic) that suggest that country has also become a terror haven since we left. The two examples in the last paragraph in my opinion show that if the U.S. had kept forces in each of the locations mentioned both of those problems would have been avoided.  As promised to finish this post I am going to mention an area of the world where we have maintained a force and the situation has rema...

 Today in Peru, the congress impeached the interim president of the country. Jose Jeri had only been in the position since October 10. He was the eighth  leader since 2016 of the South American nation of roughly 32 million people. The move grows the obvious political instability in the country and is likely going to lead to significant unrest via protests and riots. The situation is only made more chaotic by the fact that a general election is scheduled to take on the 12th of April.

 On this blog I have talked a lot about terrorism and the Middle East. In this post I am going to mention a threat that has been growing for the last decade on the continent of Africa and explain why it poses a massive threat to the world. The Sahel Region of Africa sits south of the Sahara Desert, and encompasses countries that have a history of instability, and Islamic terrorism. After the collapse of ISIS'S caliphate in 2018, many of the militants who survived fled to the Sahel with hopes of eventually turning the region into the start of a new caliphate.  The Sahel has been viewed as a potential area for a new caliphate practically since the last one ended. What was not expected, was the collapse of Afghanistan (which is a problem by itself) and the rapid growth of ISIS in Syria which has potential to spread throughout the Middle East and beyond.  The concern, and in my opinion, likelihood is since the situation in each region referenced in this post (the Sahel and th...

I am a huge sports fan, and I have often said if more people watched sports the world be a better place. In this post I am going to mention two examples of that being true, why people should embrace the day they are on, and why evil is always bad.  In 2012, the Euros were held (if you are not a fan of sports you can look up what they are) that year. Instead of having one host country as usual, the tournament was co-hosted by Poland and Ukraine. Fast forward to the present almost fourteen years later Poland is preparing to be invaded soon, and Ukraine is the epicenter of the biggest war since WW2. In 2014, the Winter Olympics were held in Sochi, Russia. Fast forward to the present day, twelve years later and explosions are audible in the city as I am typing this.  Yes, I know there are much more important things in the world than sports, but sports often represent or tie in with some of the more important things like peace. In both examples listed above when the events were tak...

Depending on where you are in the world, on Friday in Paris, France, police were rekindling the flame at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier (located under the Arc De Triomphe). While they were attending the flame, a man who was holding a knife ran at the officers intending to stab them. Before the would-be attacker got to where the police were gathered, one of the officers shot and killed him. The man who got killed was released from prison in December after serving 12 years of a 17-year sentence on terrorism charges for an attempted murder in Belgium.

 On this blog I have talked a lot about terrorist groups, and how it is obvious that those groups are growing. Just yesterday the post was about Al-Tanf. Today I will talk about very alarming numbers that came out this week and mention an incident that occurred earlier this week in Europe that is a huge red flag. Earlier this week a UN Monitoring group released a report that estimates that currently Al-Qaeda combined with groups associated with it (such as ISIS) to now have 25,000 fighters. The estimate is a 5,000% increase in their ranks from 9/11, in 2001. Now onto what happened earlier this week in Europe, On Thursday, fifteen people were arrested in the Netherlands for spreading terrorist propaganda on Tic-Tok, and for recruiting people to carry out attacks in the name of ISIS. The reason for the title of this post is from tracking the rapid growth of these groups, and how sporadic attacks are starting to pick up around the world, I sadly predict that by this summer (if not soo...

 Al-Tanf  is a United States military base. The base was established in 2014 in Syria near the border of Iraq and Jordan. The primary purpose for the base is to confront ISIS, and support operations against the Shiite Axis. The reason for this post is today the United States Military finished withdrawing their forces from the base, and Syrian Government forces (terrorists) are expected to take control of the base. In my opinion this is a terrible move. The reason I think leaving the base is a terrible move is as I have said many times and even said in the previous paragraph the current government in Syria, and their forces are made up of terrorists. There is ample evidence for this opinion, but I will say this, the stage continues to be set for a massive resurgence of ISIS and in my opinion handing Al-Tanf to the terrorists in Syria is another step in setting that stage.

 In this post I will give an update on the post from yesterday, and describe what is being planned in Caracas on Thursday (which I briefly referenced in the post yesterday). I will also talk about the background of the date which suggests what happens Thursday could serve as a significant point in the developing situation in Venezuela. First, I will start with an update from the post yesterday regarding the events involving  Juan Pablo Guanipa. Today he was rereleased from jail and put under house arrest, although his relatives claim that they still have not seen any evidence that  Guanipa is even still alive. Which leads us to what is being planned Thursday in Caraccas, the capitol city of Venezuela. In Venezuela Thursday is Youth Day, which is a national holiday to honor the bravery of youth who were killed fighting in the Battle of La Victoria.in 1814. The battle is remembered as a pivotal moment in Venezuela's struggle for independence.  The reason for the holida...

 Over the weekend the regime in Venezuela released dozens of political prisoners. The release is a move to comply with a main demand from the United States as the two countries "work together" to revitalize Venezuelan society. One of the people who was released is Juan  Pablo Guanipa. He is a close ally of the leader of the opposition, Maria Corina Machado. However, today the Attorney general in Venezuela issued an arrest warrant for Juan  Pablo Guanipa, and this morning he was "kidnapped' by armed men. Relatives of Guanipa have said that they never received a notice of his release and have not seen him after he was released. Protests have been growing over the last few weeks in Venezuela, and large protests are expected Thursday to push for the release of all political prisoners in Venezuela.

 In this post I am going to mention the latest update on the energy crisis in Ukraine, and at the end of the post I will state how whether Ukraine wins or loses (in my opinion which is based on History) will affect the world. Last night Russia carried out a wave of airstrikes across eight regions in the western side of Ukraine. The fact that the strikes targeted western Ukraine is very significant for two reasons, first the region borders Poland which is a member of NATO, the second reason it matters and the topic of this post, is the strikes targeted energy facilities. The power grid has been so heavily damaged that today  Ukrenergo  ( who operates the power grid in Ukraine) announced a reduced level of energy across the country. They advised the public should expect between 1.5-2 hours of power per day in the capital city of Kyiv and slightly more in other locations. It is winter in Ukraine, where this time of year the average temperature is 32 degrees Fahrenheit. It is...

 There has been a notable terrorist attack today in both countries listed in the title of this post. ISIS most likely carried out both attacks. In this post I will lay out some of the known details of each attack, and why they serve as evidence that what I have said many times on this blog is showing signs of being true...ISIS is back! First, I will talk about the attack in Iraq. You might remember that the post yesterday mentioned a large weapons cache that Iraqi Security Forces uncovered in the Anbar Province. Today in the same province, two ISIS suicide bombers detonated themselves injuring several members of the security forces who had confronted the militants. Lastly, I will talk about the attack in the capitol city of Pakistan, Islamabad. The attack took place during Friday prayers and began when the sole attacker started shooting at a Shiite Mosque. Once the attacker had worked his way to the Mosque (some reports say he entered the building) the attacker blew himself up. The...

 This is an update on the situation with ISIS. In my opinion the recent developments that have occurred further my theory that history is being repeated, and events are lining up in a way that strongly suggest that ISIS is about to grow rapidly. If this growth does occur, it will make ISIS a major global threat once again.  In previous posts I have talked about how the United States Military was going to move ISIS detainees from prisons in Syria (that used to be guarded by the SDF) to prisons in Iraq. Today it came out that 2,000 detainees have been moved into Iraq so far, with the number expected to reach 7,000 once the operation is completed.   The developments described in the previous paragraph are alarming because the overall situation is setting up for ISIS to expand by using the exact same methods as they did in the mid 2010s. ISIS has never ceased to exist in Iraq (just today in the Ambar Province Iraqi Security Forces seized one of the largest ISIS weapons c...

 Today in Italy the first events started for the Winter Olympics, with the Opening Ceremony scheduled to take place two days from now.  Global events tend to happen around Olympic fortnight. Perhaps not surprisingly, in this post I will list the top events that I think could happen during the Olympics or shortly after they end. China invades Taiwan. While I think this is a possibility because Russia invaded the Donbas region of Ukraine during the 2014 Winter Olympics, and Russia launched their full-scale invasion of Ukraine days after the games ended in 2022, I think it is unlikely due mainly to the lack of readiness by China. While I think the invasion will happen in the not-too-distant future, I do not think it will be during the period that we are discussing in this post. A notable terrorist attack or wave of attacks. I think this scenario is more likely than the scenario discussed in the last paragraph. I could easily see a scenario where this happens even if another globa...

 In this post I will mention an update on Ukraine, Russia, and mention two significant updates about Iran. Last night Russia carried out a massive wave of airstrikes across Ukraine. The strikes targeted Ukrainian infrastructure and were designed to break the will of the people by knocking out power and heat in the middle of the winter (last night in the capitol city of Kyiv the temperature was four degrees below zero). Next, today near Iran in the Strait of Hormuz six boats (each boat armed with a .50 caliber machine gun) threatened to board a U.S oil tanker. Also, today an Iranian drone was shot down by the United States Navy, when it flew towards the USS Abraham Lincoln.

 In this post to start the week I am going to do something similar to what I did in the post titled "THE WORLD IS ON FIRE", and at the rate at which events are happening I might do this from time to time in the future.  I am going to list some notable events from the last forty-eight hours and when I think appropriate, I will add my opinion on the topic. The first topic I will list is the attack in the country of Niger. The country of Niger is located in the Sahel region in Africa. Over the weekend ISIS claimed responsibility for a major attack that was carried out recently in Niamey, which is the capitol city of Niger. The attack targeted the airport which also serves as a military base. Next on the list is Russia's military buildup on the border of Finland. Over the weekend satellite imagery showed military equipment in the town of  Petrozavodsk, which is approximately ten and a half miles from where the 44th Army Corps is based in the town of Karelia. The formation con...