Global turmoil & analysis

 Ceuta is a Spanish autonomous city on the coast of Africa. Starting yesterday, and still ongoing as I write this post, tens of thousands of "young men" have entered Ceuta. It important to note that by young men I mean almost exclusively military aged males. Spain has sent units of its military into the area (tear gas, rubber pellets, and water cannons have occasionally been used) yet more and more men keep coming. This is obviously a very dangerous and concerning situation. 

 Early on July 30th, a Russian missile landed deep into Polish territory. Poland is a member of NATO, and borders Ukraine (occasional stray missiles are not unheard of). However, the distance the missile traveled into Poland suggest intent.

 Earlier today, A drone hit a U.S. owned gas tanker. The attack occurred while the tanker was in the Egyptian Port of Damietta. It is currently unconfirmed if the drone was launched by Iran, or an Iranian proxy (but it is highly likely). To my knowledge this is the first attack to occur in Egypt during the current war.

 On July 28th (U.S time) Iran launched ballistic missiles at a military base in Jordan (the same base U.S. soldiers were killed at almost 2 weeks ago). As of the writing of this post the U.S. has not responded to the new attack. In other news, also on July 28th (U.S time) Saudi Arabia, and the United States, conducted airstrikes against Iranian backed forces in several different areas of Iraq.

 Today drones struck the Abqaiq refinery in Saudi Arabia, causing large fires. The attack is very significant for a few reasons, which I will discuss in the next paragraph. The Abqaiq refinery is the largest crude oil stabilisation plant in the world processing between 5-7% of the global oil supply. It is considered a critical link in the global oil supply chain. To say the least an attack at the refinery is bad for the world at any time, particularly in the global environment that the world is currently in.

 With all of the talk going on about whether the United States will expand their attacks against Iran or not (and the reasons for either move), I wanted to just say something obvious that is important to remember. Hatred is a real thing. Whether you are taking about Iran, China, or Russia, they all hate the United States. You cannot be reasonable with countries that hate you, you cannot always agree to a deal with countries that hate you, which means you necessarily must always be willing to fight and defeat countries that hate you. 

 The last few hours a potentially very significant attack (conducted by the Houthis) has been ongoing across multiple areas in Saudi Arabia. Earlier today, (July 24th) Saudi Arabia attacked "military sites" at Hudaydah Port, in Houthi controlled Yemen. One of the areas that is reportedly being targeted by the Houthis is Yanbu (a port city in Saudi Arabia). Yanbu is home to major ports, and other critical oil facilities.

 In this post, I am going to cover three topics (all of them connected). The first topic is an update on the last post. Shortly atter I published the post the Houthis struck 2 vessels in the Red Sea. The attacks are responsible for the next topic. Due to the attacks yesterday in the Red Sea, today the price of Brent Crude Oil reached $100 per barrel. The last topic is, it is very apparent that there is going to be a significant escalation in the Iran War soon. The United States has Sent 150 military medics to Landstuhl Medical Center in Germany. Isreal has advised hospitals to be prepared to move underground. The United States is moving several additional fighter aircraft to the Middle East, and it is believed that U.S. Special Forces are in the area presumably to carry out upcoming ground operations.

 On July 20th, the post was about how the Houthis had called for a "maritime embargo" against Saudi Arabia. I also mentioned how if the Bab el Mandeb Strait was closed it would cause major problems around the world. In just two days, eight vessels have been forced to turn around before reaching the Strait. This is a very concerning development as the Bab el Mandeb is the main alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, and with Hormuz being essentially closed (creating a global strain of various goods chiefly oil) a closure of the Bab el Mandeh is in many ways a worst-case scenario. 

 On Sunday the President of Nicaragua said that the country will never hold elections again. Daniel Ortega (the President) has been in power (along with his wife) since 2007, and led the country is the 80's as well. This should matter to every person in the world who cares about freedom, as the announcement by Ortega is the latest evidence that Nicaragua is a dictatorship. 

 On July 20, the Houthis announced a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia. The announcement has massive potential consequences attached to it, as an "embargo" of the Red Sea would most likely involve the closure of the Bab el Mandeb Strait. I am not going to discuss the potential global ramifications of the Bab el Mandeb being closed in this post (there are many). The reason that I am doing a post about the possibility is, if it is closes it would be a big deal.

 After my last post, Iran launched a drone/missile attack against Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. The attack left 2 U.S. soldiers dead, 1 missing, and 4 injured. The reason for the title of this post is not political; it is about the United States response to the attack. The response by the U.S. was not swift, or powerful. If anything, the strikes that were conducted "in response to the attack in Jordan" were significantly less than every night for the last week. I am an American, and I never imagined (even in my most cynical moments) that I would ever experience the country looking this weak. As a country you are supposed to avenge your dead who were killed by the enemy, and as of the writing of this post (it saddens me to say this) the U.S. has failed to do so. I hope that am wrong.

 In the last 24 hours, several notable escalations have occurred in the Middle East. In the next paragraph, I will list the notable (in the best order I can). Since the last post, Iran struck a desalination plant in Kuwait, Iran hit at least 2 more ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran fired a ballistic missile at Saudi Arabia, and the United States struck 2 bridges, and a tunnel in Iran. It also has been reported that this week several U.S. Soldiers were injured in Jordan. The list in this post it not exhaustive but notes the most notable events over the last 24 hours in the Middle East.

 July 16th was the sixth consecutive night of back and forth strikes between the United States and Iran. The 28th, and 29th, also included strikes (by the U.S. during the day). The last two days have also seen what could be considered a significant escalation as the U.S. has struck a few airports as well as 5-7 bridges.

 Before I answer the question posed in the title, I want to say two things. First, this post is partially my opinion (but not entirely). The other point that I want to say (it is connected to the first) my opinion is based on my understanding of the belief system that the Iranian Regime operates under. With the first paragraph in mind, the answer is no. This presents an important question how will this war end? If you have an opinion, put it in the comments.

At 4PM ET, the United States naval blockade is set to resume. It is highly likely that the next several hours, and days are going to be very tense in the region.  The main cause of the tension is not only the reimplementation of the blockade, but also due to the escalating situation between the Houthis, and Saudi Arabia.

 Earlier today in Yeman, an Iranian plane attempted to land at Sana'a International Airport. Before the plane landed, airstrikes (it is unclear who conducted them) hit the runway causing the plane to abort the landing. The Houthis blamed the strikes on Saudi Arabia and responded a few hours later by firing a ballistic missile at Saudi Arabia (and threatened to conduct more attacks). 

 I said in a post on June 27th, that the United States engaging in tit for tats with Iran was "disappointing", and a "regrettable sign of weakness." Within the last week, three episodes of (what I would call) "tit for tats" have occurred. The most recent episode is still ongoing. On July 11th, Iran attacked a ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. responded with airstrikes in Iran, and Iran is firing drones and missiles and various countries as I write this post. Not only is doing back and forth attacks with Iran bad strategy, but in the long run (due to the ideology of the Iranian Regime) it actually empowers Iran.

 On this blog I have consistently said the "deal" that was signed with Iran a few weeks ago would never last. It never really worked in any way. A few days ago, the president of the United States said the "ceasefire "was over and the last 2 days traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (which never returned to its average from before the war) has slowed down to a trickle. I could easily see a scenario where something significant happens in the next few hours. Stay aware.

 Before I began this post, I want to say this is not about politics (nothing on this blog ever is). This post is about policy, specifically isolationism. I believe (as an American) the idea of 'isolationism" is one of the most dangerous topics being talked about. In the next paragraph, I will summarize what it is, and why I think it is dangerous (specifically for the United States). Isolationism is a policy (or policies) that cause the country with said policies to be uninvolved outside of its own affairs. It was the official policy of the United States leading up to WW1, and WW2. For people who "hate war", it is obviously the preferred foreign policy. The problem is it does not work (at least not for long). 

 There is so much going on in the world at the same time, and so much noise. It is very important to be aware of what is going on around the world, but in the modern day when everything seems to be tinged with politics (which is typically poison) how can you ever know what to think? The answer to the question posed at the end of the last paragraph is one word, principal. If you are guided by principal (fundamental truths) and apply it to how you understand what is happening in the world, not only will your understanding of the matter be more comprehensive (as opposed to trying to understand without being guided by principals) but it will usually have the added benefit of being true.

 Within the last two to three days (depending on where you live in the world) Iran has attacked three ships in the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the attacks by Iran, the United States carried out over eighty airstrikes in Iran. In the last hour sirens have been heard in Kuwait, and Bahrain. As I have said before, a tit for tat with Iran (which is clearly what is happening) makes the United States look weak. The United States looking weak is bad for the free world.

 As of yesterday, most international teams have left Venezuela. What is actually going to happen next in that country? Tens of thousands of are dead, the regime is lying about the numbers, and public anger among Venezuelans is very intense. So, what is going to happen next in Venezuela? Total social collapse (similar to Cuba).

 I was born, raised, and someday will die in the United States. Today is the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States. Some countries are thousands of years old; some were founded within the last century (the U.S is not part of either category) however, since its founding the United States has undeniably been among the most important countries on earth. I will add that since WW2 (in my opinion) until recently, the United States has also been the strongest country in the world.  The last paragraph is really the reason for this post. The United States is great, because we were founded on solid principles and in recent times have strayed from those principles. I hope and believe we will recover. To close this post, whether you live in the United States or not, everyone knows that the United States is still very important.

 A short time ago a school partially collapsed in Caracas. The school was heavily damaged in the earthquakes last week, so it is not shocking that it collapsed (but still terrible). The collapse shows the fact that the situation is still deteriorating. With the prospect of finding survivors now very low (thousands are still missing) two big questions persist. First, how will the country ever recover? Second, how much patience do the Venezuelan people have left? 

 Late on the night of July 1st, and into the early hours of July 2nd, Russia launched another big attack across Ukraine (with the main target being Kyiv).  During the attacks Russia launched more than 70 missiles, and just under 500 drones. The attack (which hit several residential buildings) resulted in at least 113 injured, and 27 dead (with emergency responders still looking for survivors in the rubble) as of the writing of this post.

 In most posts recently I've talked. about more than one topic. The topic of this post however is so significant that it deserves the full attention of the post (do what it implies) A secret Russian document was uncovered recently; the document directly refers to an internal order that was issued last August. The Russian defense minister issued the order for a delegation of the Russian military to travel to China. One of the courses described, is a 3-week (very thorough) session on nuclear fallout. There are more details that are coming out about the document (all of them bad for the free world). I will just say that it serves as concrete evidence of the modern "Axis of Evil."