Global turmoil & analysis

 Earlier today on a flight from Dubai to Tel Aviv, the copilot stabbed the pilot. After stabbing the pilot, the copilot tried to crash the plane. Thankfully, some of the 272 passengers on board entered the cockpit and subdued the copilot. During the chaos, the plane descended roughly 14,000 feet in 30 seconds. Once the threat was over, a passenger (who only knew about flying planes from watching a tv show) was able to steady the plane. Eventually a pilot was able to safety land the plane in Saudi Arabia. A few hours later, another plane flew the passengers to their original destination in Israel. It is currently unknown whether the copilot is part of a terrorist group or a lone wolf. The incident is being investigated as a terrorist attack. 

 All U.S forces that were in Iraq are expected to be out of the country by the end of September 30th. This is an enormous mistake and unforced error. I will talk about the ramifications of this decision in the rest of the post. In 2011, the United States withdraw from Iraq. A short time later, ISIS started to create the Caliphate (a large portion of it was Iraqi territory). Iran has several proxy forces in Iraq (the U.S. is currently at war with Iran) Iran will see this withdrawal as a retreat. In the very near future, you should expect to see the Iraqi government overthrown. You should also anticipate seeing a massive resurgence of terrorist organizations in the Middle East. The "resurgence" I mentioned will not solely be because of Iraq, but Iraq is sort of like a cherry on top. The leader of a branch of Al Qaeda is the "President" of Syria, ISIS is growing around the world, Iran feels emboldened, as they feel like they are surviving a war with the U.S., and now I...

 Today a Russian drone hit the Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences building. The strike caused a fire to start at the building and caused at least 2 deaths (emergency crews are still digging through rubble). The strike is another reminder that Russia does not only want to win the war, but they also want to destroy Ukrainian society as they do not believe it has a right to exist. The way Russia sees it, Ukraine is nothing more than stolen Russian land, lived in by evil, brainwashed Russians (the same way that China sees Taiwan).

 There are several situations around the world that are doing the same sort of things daily, that is why I have been writing a few stories over the last week using the semi calm time to write stories that are based on historical precedent and designed to show what might happen in the near future. Without further a due, here is another story. A husband-and-wife work at a charity in the Middle East. They are from the United States and travel to poor areas in the region every few months to serve in the charity in roles that are similar to their jobs at home. The husband helps with community finances and the wife helps at medical centers as a nurse. On one trip they are helping at a small town in Iraq. On a night in the middle of Ramadan, as the couple is walking to the dormitory they stay in two-armed men approach them. All of a sudden one of the men shoots the husband (he falls onto the ground). The wife screams and one of the men puts a hood over her head. The woman feels her hands ...

 In a small village in Poland, there is a house that 5 people live in. The people who live in the house are a husband and his wife, their 2 kids, (age 11and 6) and the daughter of the husband's sister (she is 17).  The village that they live in is so close to the border with Russia, that you can easily see cars driving in Russia from the village. Rumors have been floating around the village that Russia might attack Poland soon.  Hours after the attack begins most people who live in the village have already evacuated. The family mentioned in the first paragraph waits to evacuate until nightfall on foot (all the roads are closed). Around midnight the parents and kids pause, when they hear a single gunshot. They turn around and see the 17-year-old falling onto the ground. Everyone runs towards her, and as they get closer, she says please leave, they might shoot you. The mom goes toward the girl, and the dad goes with kids behind a tree. When the mom gets to the 17-year-old s...

 Maduro was captured by the United States military early this year. His "vice president" who was never voted for either) took over the country. Over 9 months later, she (Delcy Rodriguez) is still in power, and elections have still not occurred (nor are they scheduled). Meanwhile, Venezuelans are still suffering under the same oppression as they did under Maduro. Rumors have started to circulate that Maria Corina Macachado might enter the country soon, and on September 25th a protest took place in Caracas calling for elections.  As the situation appears to be intensifying, it is important to note that Rodríguez is currently out of the country (she is attending the United Nations General Assembly).

 On September 23rd, it was reported that the CIA has warned Spain, Italy, and France, that Russia is planning to launch drone strikes against them. According to the reporting, Russia is planning to launch the drones from storage containers on merchant vessels at sea. The intelligence was told to European countries after the CIA director visited Moscow last month. I talked about the meeting the day in happened in the post titled "CONCERNING DEVELOPMENT." Another event that I want to mention is, on September 23rd the President of China arrived in the United States. He is expected to be here (I live in the United States) for a three day "state visit." I think this is a very bad idea for the United States, because China does not want to be friends with the United States, they want to replace the United States. Read my last post to know to help get an idea of what China intends to do.

 People across the United States wake up to an alert at 4 am on their phones. The alert warns that long columns of troops and armored vehicles have been reported entering the United States from the south and north simultaneously. The alert goes on to say that several cargo planes have been detected entering United States airspace. Many people start acting very fast. Some go to "doomsday" shelters that they have had set up in their backyards for years. Some start packing items they cannot live without. Many people spend the next few hours working with neighbors to stockpile weapons knives, baseball bats, guns, anything they could think of to fight with if needed. Almost nobody slept anymore that night. Throughout the rest of the morning people occupied themselves doing the things that were listed in the previous paragraph. Many people kept there Tv's on all day to keep up with the latest updates. Around 11 am, a video from someone's phone that they sent to a news chann...

 I understand why many people (and governments) are so risk adverse to engaging in military conflicts. The hesitancy is even healthy in some cases, but sometimes tough decisions have to be made that end with people getting hurt or dying. If there was ever a good time for certain countries (especially the United States) to strongly use their military might, that time is now. The harsh reality is, the only way the current global tension is going to calm down, is if the free world acts much more aggressively. To put it coldly (plainly) it is much better for the world if the risky actions that need to happen occur now (and some people die) than the free world wait like it has in the past, and many of us get hurt or die.

 A man sees his breath in the cold air as he looks at the crowd in front of him. Moments after he locates his wife (age 34) and his 2 kids (a daughter age 5, and a son age 7) in the crowd, he is hit in face by a rifle butt. He falls on his knees, and he sees blood from somewhere on his head hitting the snow. The man has not slept in four days and lacks the strength to get up. A Russian soldier standing behind him holds the man upright as another soldier binds the man's hands in front of him. The soldier in front stoops down and ties the man's feet together. The man is a volunteer in the Ukrainian Military, and after a month of captivity has been brought to the village he was born in, to have an example made of him (to scare off any post war resistance).  After the two Russian soldiers pick up the man (one holding his legs, the other at his shoulders) they carry him over to a tall pole. Once the soldiers stand the man up against the pole, they put ropes around the man tying him...

 Over the last two days, leaders in several European countries (even Switzerland) have met regarding the current threat posed by Russia.  It is clear from the statements being made by leaders after the meetings that they believe Europe is facing an upcoming period of extreme instability. From everything I have heard, it sounds like the window for Russia to do something very provocative begins in October. 

 I have said in past posts what I think would happen globally speaking if Ukraine loses against Russia. In this post, I am going to paint a picture of what it would be like for Ukrainian civilians if Ukraine were to loss the war. I am going to do this by talking about a family of 6 (husband, wife, 3 sons, 1 daughter) who live in Ukraine after they lose. Last note to keep in mind, the husband is 46, the wife is 44, and the ages of the kids range from 21-14. It is early winter, and a mom and daughter stand in a prison cell. On the other side of the same building a dad is being put on a stretcher to be transported to a hospital to be treated (he has terminal cancer). In the same cell are 2 of his sons. The third son has been in a Russian reeducation camp for three years. The boys (they are both under 18) watch as their dad is rolled out of the cell. Ukraine was defeated a week before the scene in the previous paragraph, and all 5 of the family members in the prison have been sentenced...

 On September 16th, the Houthis announced that they had shot down an F-15 in the Roval Saudi Air Force. A short time later, footage of the downed aircraft started to be shown on Houthi media. Saudi Arabia (unsurprisingly) has not publicly acknowledged the claim at all. If the claim by the Houthis (that they shot down an F-15) is true, it would be significant for two reasons. First, Saudi Arabia does not make the F-15s (the United States does) the U.S. sells them to Saudi Arabia.  What this means, (theoretically) is the Houthis can now also shootdown planes in the U.S. Military. The other reason that (if true) the shootdown would be significant is, until this incident, the Houthis have never possessed the capability to shootdown aircraft of any sort. What this means is they likely acquired it from another country very recently.

 The first situation that I am going to mention in this post is Poland has started to fortify their border with Ukraine. Among other moves, engineers in the Polish Army are installing Hesco barriers at already in use guard posts. The event that I want to bring up is, in recent hours, Saudi Arabia shot down a Houthi drone over Mecca. This will likely be understood (by Saudi Arabia) as a sizeable escalation in the war in the Middle East.

 On September 14th, Germany started to move active-duty troops into Lithuania; the troops are part of the first German standing combat brigade (outside of Germany) since WW2. The brigade (i Panzerbrigade 45) i s not designed to combat a Russian invasion, but is designed to stunt a smaller attack, and make a larger offensive costly. I saw an analyst say that Germany would not do this without good reason.

A few hours before this post Poland issued air raid alerts on their border with Ukraine. Russia has greatly increased their strikes in Ukraine, including starting a campaign to destroy all gas stations located between Kyiv, and Ukraine's northern border with Russia. Due to the situations mentioned in the first paragraph (and other reasons that I have discussed in previous posts on this blog) I think within the next year Ukraine will lose, a war with NATO will begin, or both. To be clear, I hope that I am wrong.

Yesterday, I said that analysts were concerned that the Houthis would continue their offensive to take over the entire Yemeni coastline (after the Houthis took control of Mokha). Today those concerns were largely realized, as the Houthis gained control of the island of Perim.  The Island of Perim is located in the Bab el Mandeb Strait. The Houthis gaining control of Perim, has increased fears that the Houthis will use Perim to attack ships going through the Strait. With the Strait of Hormuz already essentially closed, any slowing of traffic going through the Bab el Mandeb would be a long feared worst case scenario.

 On September 10th, The Houthis took control of the port city of Mokha. This is a very concerning development, as the city is located roughly 50 miles from the Bab el Mendab Strait. Many analysts are now concerned that the Houthis are going to continue their offensive, with the goal of gaining control of the entire Yemeni coastline. In addition, the Houthis have struck the East-west Pipeline in Saudi Arabia. The pipeline is the only way to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, with up to 7 million barrels of crude oil going through the pipeline each day. The combination of the two events described above at a minimum is going to cause the price of oil to drastically rise. At some point in the near future (if not already) intense military action will be warranted, as the situation is on the verge of getting out of control.

I have said many times on this blog that the world is changing. In this post, I am going to talk about being ready for what is coming (and in some parts of the world, is already happening). This post is going to go about doing this in a similar way to the posts "EVIL, BUT REALITY," and "CONTEX EXERCISE." The country you live in is being invaded, shortly after the invasion begins you join the military to fight off the invaders. You can choose to help to stop the enemy by fighting. You are watching a game on TV; a warning comes on the screen saying that your country is being invaded. Scared, you immediately get into your car intending to drive somewhere safe hoping to wait out the fighting. You can find safety somewhere, and hope for the best. A nurse just finished her shift and is driving to pick her kids up after school. She has the radio on, halfway to the school an announcement comes on the radio saying her country is being invaded. She is filled with an urge to g...

 On September 8th, the United States struck five Iranian oil tankers (4 were disabled, 1 sank). In response, Iran fired 20 ballistic missiles at a military base in Jordan that houses U.S. forces. Eighteen of the twenty missiles that were fired were successfully intercepted. Some of the missiles were carrying cluster munitions. The actions described in the above paragraph, occur on a day when the price of oil reached over $99 per barrel.

 Over the weekend two negotiators from the United States went to Ukraine (after going to Russia first). They left Ukraine on September 6th. Roughly one day after they left Ukraine, Russia began a major attack on Kyiv. The attack consisted of roughly two dozen ballistic missiles (including some that were made in North Korea) and over 30 cruise missiles.  It is important to notice the timing of the attack. Russia is sending a two-part message by doing the attack so soon after the negotiators left Ukraine. One reason is to make it very clear to the United States (if it was not clear enough already) that Russia has no interest in any sort of stop to the war. The other reason is to send the message to Ukraine that they are alone. I also want to mention Saudi Arabia. Within the last day, the Houthis have conducted attacks on "national resources" and "civilian infrastructure" The attacks have injured 73 people.

 Recently, Iran fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. aircraft carrier, and a guided missile destroyer. On September 5th, the U.S. responded by disabling three Iranian oil tankers. The latest back and forth is significant for two related reasons that are connected. First, Iran actually firing missiles at a U.S. ship is a big deal. The other reason it is significant is, it is another obvious indication that Iran has no desire for a deal of any kind.

 In the middle of the day on September 4th, a Russian drone struck the headquarters of Ukraine's SBU (security service). The building is located in central Kyiv, and the drone appeared to be aiming specifically for the office of the head of the security service (5 people were injured). Russia has been conducting around the clock strikes on Kyiv for about a week. A short time before the writing of this post, a Russian strike hit a residential high rise. Remember, Kyiv is the capitol city of a major European country.  

 A common theme of how events are covered in the world currently seems to be bad context. Proper context is important to understanding everything. If you do not have it, you will be susceptible to believe partial truths or conspiracy theories. In this post, I am going to list 3 semi made up scenarios, it is up to you to decide which is just, which is a fact of life (it has to happen sometimes) and which is unjust. A leader of a country is being led through a crowd, the leader has his hands tied behind his back. Much of the crowd is joyfully chanting at the prospect of what is about to occur. The leader sees some of the soldiers in front of him walk up steps leading up to a platform. The soldiers behind the leader push him forward as he starts to walk up the steps leading to the platform. A few minutes later, the leader has a hood put over his head, and a rope is put around his neck. The crowd goes silent with anxious expectations, as the cruel leader of their country has been overt...

 The title of this post is not a good thing. I am aware that some people like change, however, I think all people can agree that some changes are not good. The purpose of this post is to briefly analyze the inflection point that the world currently finds itself in. To be clear, I do not think what is happening is entirely unprecedented, except that the scope is much bigger than ever before. I think (unfrankly) that the world is in a state of extreme instability. I also think (sadly) that the post war order is being undone. What this means in short is, for the foreseeable future there will be (for lack of a better way to word it) a global free for all. 

 On August 5th, I posted about an incident at an airport in Germany. In the post titled '"CRISIS AVERTED," I mentioned that it was possible (even likely) that Russia was responsible. Today it was announced by German authorities, that they can confirm that Russia was indeed responsible for the incident. A few hours before the announcement about Russia, several explosive devices were discovered at a power substation in Brandenburg Germany. The substation where the devices were found, is connected to the largest power plant in Brandenburg (and the 4th biggest in Germany).  As of the writing of this post, it is unknown if the PowerStation, and the announcement about Russia are connected.