Global turmoil & analysis

 The update that I refer to in the title of this post is in regard to a topic that I mentioned last week in the post about Boko Haram. I said that Boko Haram had kidnapped hundreds of schoolgirls and given the Nigerian Government a 72-hour deadline to meet the groups demands, and if they did not the group would start conducting "mass executions" of the girls. Early on April 30th, Boko Haram released a video in which they said the deadline had expired, and a deal to free the girls was no longer possible. Unfortunately going off of how terrorists' groups usually handle such situations, it is likely that many of girls have already been executed. The world needs to realize how big the current threat from terrorism is. I fear/think situations like the one described in this post are going to happen more often moving forward.

 This post is going be about my opinion regarding the global crises that are directly connected to oil. As is the case with every opinion that I post about, it is based on history, Today, the price of Brent Crude Oil reached $120 (the highest it has been during the Iran War). The national average price of gas in the United States is roughly $4.29. a gallon. Most gas stations around where I live have the price around $5 a gallon, and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz render the current situation as unsustainable. In my opinion, the situation all around is going to drastically worsen until the Strait of Hormuz is fully open again If you live in the United States, in the comments put what the price of gas is where you live. If you live in another country, add what country.

The first update that I want to mention, is about Menaka Mali. Menaka is the name of the town that I referenced yesterday that ISIS has taken over in Mali. According to reports coming out of the region, ISIS is consolidating their control of the town of roughly 67,000. The fact that they are "consolidating" is concerning, as it suggests that ISIS intends to hold the town, instead of briefly occupying it. Next, another update on the offensive of JNIM in Mali. Today JNIM announced that they are beginning a siege of Bamako, the capitol city of Mali.  Lastly, today, the UAE announced that that the country is leaving OPEC. The purpose of OPEC is (to summarize) to make sure that the flow, and price of oil coming from the Middle East remain steady. This development is concerning, as the.UAE is responsible for roughly 5.4% of the global production of crude oil. By leaving a regulatory body such as OPEC, during the current environment of extreme global oil instability, is that likely ...

 In the last post, I mentioned the situation in Mali. In this post, I am going to give more updates on Mali as well as concerning news about ISIS. Since the attacks began on Saturday in Mali, it has been confirmed that the defense minister in Mali has been killed, Russian backed mercenaries have largely withdrawn from the country ("peacefully" handing over four towns) and as I write this post, there is heavy fighting taking place in/around Bamako (the capital city). In related news, ISSP (the branch of ISIS in the Sahel) has claimed control of a town in Mali that is on the border with Niger. Today the group also claimed responsibility for an attack in Nigeri that killed 29 people. Note, ISSP is not doing the main fighting in Mali. The main group fighting in Mali is JNIM, who is alighted with Al Qaeda.

 Early this morning in Mali (which is located in the Sahel Region) what seems to be a major operation led by JNIM (who are an affiliate of Al Qaeda) began. The exact goal of the operation is unclear, and many details are unclear at this point. In this post, I am going to list what is known so far. First, JNIM is carrying out the attacks in conjunction with the Azawad Liberation Front (a rebel group). Second, Russia has a notable military presence in the country. Lastly, perhaps the most important thing to keep in mind while tracking developments in Mali is, the Government in Mali gained power via a coup in 2020, meaning do not trust what they say by itself.    Fighting throughout the country is ongoing, and there are unconfirmed reports that control of many urban areas has been claimed by the terrorists. This is a developing story.

 Boko Haram is a terrorist group based in Nigeria; in 2015 they pledged allegiance to ISIS. I have written a lot on this blog about the rapid resurgence of Islamic Terrorism, and the actions by Boko Haram in the last week serve as proof of that resurgence. Last Sunday, Boko Haram kidnapped hundreds of schoolgirls. The group threatened to carry out a mass execution of the girls if the Nigerian Government did not meet their demands within 72 hours. The fate of most of the girls is unknown, but yesterday it was reported that ten had escaped.  Thursday, Boko Haram set off an IED in a small logging village and shot people as they fled the scene. So far, eighteen people have been confirmed dead from the attack (local officials have said the death toll is expected to increase).

 A quick reminder as we head into Friday (Fridays are usually busy news days) and then the weekend. It is always extremely important to analyze events around the world using reason. For example, there are major developments going on in the Middle East as I write this post. However, while tracking said developments if you hear something on Tv on a political channel and later read about the same development without the political spin that you heard on Tv use your reason to come to a conclusion of what makes sense. What makes sense is almost always reliable. The reason I write this, is because there are a lot of events taking place around the world that are important for people to be aware of, but I have witnessed many people seeing the events through a lens. What I hope you come away from this post thinking is, never draw conclusions from one source, instead listen/read multiple sources and use reason to decide what you think. 

Wednesday morning, the IRGC Navy attacked and seized two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Later on, videos came out showing that the seized tankers had been sailed into Iranian ports. The condition of their crews is currently unknown. In the title I referred to the action described above as a "disaster" as it occurred hours after the United States announced a "unilateral" and indefinite extension to the ceasefire. This extension combined with the attacks, resulted in Brent Crude Oil going over $100 a barrel, for the first time since the ceasefire went into place two weeks ago.

A quick update on a developing situation in Venezuela. For some background, Yare Prison (located in Venezuela) consists of three buildings that combined are supposed to hold up to fifteen thousand prisoners. However, 44,500 prisoners are being held there, which brings me to the reason for this post. Earlier today, some sort of clashes broke out at the prison (and might still be taking place). Reports suggest that so far the fighting has resulted in 9 deaths, and up to 250 injuries.

 I closed the last post by asking what if anything people thought would happen between the United States and Iran by time I write this post. I also asked if something did happen, which side would be responsible for it?. If you said that something would happen, and it would be the United States (I am not saying the U.S was wrong to do it) you you are right. Yesterday an Iranian cargo ship broke through the U.S. blockade and after ignoring orders to stop, had its engine room hit by rounds fired by the USS Spruance. The other development I wanted to address is, today the U.S. Embassy in Iraq warned U.S. citizens already in the country to leave immediately. It also urged U.S. citizens not to travel to Iraq. The reason for the  concern is terrorist groups in the country are said to be aiming to assault Americans. The situation is so unstable the Embassy has cautioned U.S. citizens that want to leave Iraq not to go to the Embassy in Baghdad, or the Consulate in Erbil.

 Early this morning, two Iranian gunboats opened fire on an Indian flagged oil tanker. Around the time of the attack, the Iranian Navy announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. I have said the Strait is closed several times in previous posts, but two aspects of the events today suggest to me that these actions (the attack on the tanker, and the statement announcing the closure of the Strait) will be very significant moving forward. In the next paragraph, I will list the two aspects that stood out to me. The first aspect that stood out is, Iran actually did something to enforce a closure (attacked the tanker) instead of only claiming it was  closed. Second, they said it will remain closed until the U.S. blockade ends and said any vessel that attempts to cross the Strait will be destroyed (which sounds like an escalation). What if anything will happen before I do the next post on Monday? Will there be more action by Iran or a U.S response? Say your opinion in the comments f...

In the very first post on this blog, I said nothing on here will ever be political. I have brought up that rule in some posts since, and today (Friday) was a good example of why that rule (no politics), is adhered to on this blog. On Friday morning, the Foreign Minister of Iran posted on X that the Strait of Hormuz was open. A short time later, the national news media in the United States started to talk about it., and shortly after that the U.S president posted about it, then everyone was talking about the Strait of Hormuz being fully opened A few hours after the talk started, Agenda Free Tv came on to talk about the new news. On the broadcast Steve Lookner ( I mentioned Steve and Agenda Free tv on February 24) was showing a website that tracks the movements of ships. Shortly after he came on you could see that not only were the oil tankers not "freely" traversing the Strait, but they turned around, suggesting there was still a threat. This post is a good example of why I ...

This post is going to be very short.   Today, U.S Forces finished their withdrawal from Qasrak Airbase in Syria. A short time later, the " Syrian Defense Minister" clamed they were in control of all bases that the U.S deployed from. I have made my opinion about the current leadership in Syria very clear in prior posts, and I am sure that they will come up in the future. The working assumption in the U.S is if there is ever a a threat is Syria they will let us back in (they won't). The point of this post is whether it is the Taliban, the "government" in Syria, or the Regime in Iran. As a rule, never trust terrorists.

 China is talked about a lot these days but why? Iran is currently in the news, and Russia is always a big talking point, but what is unique about China? In this post I am going to discuss what is unique about China, and further explain (I began in the post titled " TWO HITLERS WW3 UNDERWAY) my view that much of what is happening in the world today is parallel to how WW2 played out. During WW2, the enemies of the free world were the Axis of Evil (Italy, Japan, and Germany) and although Japan was arguably the toughest foe, Germany was always considered the biggest global threat. Germany alone had ambitions to take over the world (Japan wanting the Pacific). In the next paragraph, I will connect the dots of the Axis of Evil, and what is "unique" about China With the understanding that  the countries that made up the Axis of Evil were imperfect allies (none of them wanted the others to fully succeed) and seeing that a new Axis of Evil exists today we (I) can conclude that w...

The title of this post is referring to Venezuela, specifically a development that occurred Monday night that clearly shows the Regime that Maduro was the head of is still very intact. From the time Maduro was arrested by U.S Forces in January, I have said it was a mistake not to take out the entire Regime (I literally posted about it). Last week, I wrote about growing public anger at the continued horrible economic situation in Venezuela. Monday Night Delcy Rodriquez did something that makes it very clear that it is not only intact, but reconsolidating. Monday Night Rodriquez stated on her X Account, that she is naming Vladimir Padrino Lopez (a four star General, and Defense Minister under Maduro) as the Minister of Agriculture. In communist regimes it is common practice to move core members of the regime into important positions to maintain loyalty. In this case moving a four star General, and former Defense Minister to Minister of agriculture.  Pay attention to Venezuela, the sit...

 In this post, I am going to mention two big events currently taking place in the world. One of the events is getting a lot of attention around the world. However, the first event that I am going to discuss, although very significant, is in my opinion getting less notice then it should. On February 17, I posted about how Peru had impeached its President that day(the country's eighth president since 2016). Yesterday, previously scheduled elections took place to (among other items) vote in a new President(there are 35 candidates). The main reason that I am bringing up this up today is, due to technical issues with the ballots voting got extended into today. Obviously much of the country is fed up with the situation, and widespread protests are anticipated regardless of who "wins" the election. The other news I wanted to mention is today the U.S. Navy implemented a blockade on Iranian ports, and oil. I am not going to detail about the "blockade" because not much is...

 In this post I am going to  make an argument for why it is important to pay attention to/be aware of what is happening around the world regardless of where you live. To do that, I am going to use as examples two major events that are currently taking place in the world. The first example I will give is the war taking place in the Middle East, specifically the situation regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The current trickle through the Strait directly affects you regardless of where you live. Whether you live in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, or the United States, what is happening with oil as it pertains to the Strait of Hormuz directly affects you. The second example is the war between Russia and Ukraine. Many, perhaps most people in the world outside of the two countries (Russia and Ukraine) view the war as large and important, but do not understand how it serves as an exact parallel to how WW2 started. Most people simply are not "paying attention" to the war and how the outc...

The West African branch of ISIS, and Al Qaeda have started fighting against each other in the country of Niger. The two groups started fighting in 2019 almost exclusively in Burkina Faso, and Mali. The fact that the fighting has spread to Niger is concerning, because it highlights the fact that the two groups are rapidly growing in the Sahel region (which I have talked about in some previous posts). I would expect the fighting to intensify, and spread as the globe Jihadist threat continues to go largely unchecked, specifically in the Sahel.

On Wednesday, the Interim President of Venezuela (Delcy Rodríguez) said in a televised address, that on May 1 she will announce an undefined  "responsible increase" to the income of workers in the country. This amidst minimum wage being 27 cents a month since 2022. and a maximum monthly wage of $160 for most workers. In response to the announcement mentioned in the previous paragraph, earlier today (Thursday) an anti government protest took place in the capitol city of Caracas (for the first time since August 2024). The march consisted of two thousand people, and they marched towards the Miraflores Palace, pushing through several police blockades in the process (occasionally having tear gas fired at them). Ultimately, a large police blockade stopped the march only 1.2 miles from Miraflores. In my opinion, based on history, and comments from some of the protesters today, I would expect a very tense situation on May 1 in Venezuela (likely with large protests) regardless of the ...

Yesterday, I talked about why it looked like a "significant escalation" was about to happen in the war taking place in the Middle East. However, to my shock a ceasefire was announced. Despite the announcement of a "ceasefire" Iran has launched several more missiles into Isreal, and various Gulf countries.  In addition, Isreal is continuing to conduct airstrikes in Lebanon (including over 100 strikes within 10 minutes this morning), and the Strait of Hormuz in still closed. Is the "ceasefire" still in effect? not in my opinion.

 Many developments are occurring that strongly suggest that there is going to be a very significant escalation in the war in the Middle East in the next few hours. In this post, I am going to briefly list some of the most important developments. Some of the most telling signs of escalation are the Spanish Embassy in Qatar has warned its citizens to have enough essential supplies stashed to stay inside for days, and Kuwait has told the people in the country to stay inside from midnight to six in the morning. The most telling development by far though is, the President of the United States has set a deadline of 8 PM Eastern Time for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. We will see what, if anything happens. For the record I think any sort of diplomatic deal would be a mistake. To finish this post with a good update, today Shelly Kittleson (the American Journalist who was kidnapped last week in Iraq) was released today unharmed.  

In this post I am going to mention an update from the last post, and I will finish by discussing a major strike that was carried out today in Iran, by Isreal. First, an update from the last post. Late at night Saturday (several hours after the post) it was announced that the other crewmember from the downed F-15E had been rescued. I am not going to mention the details of the mission to rescue him, except to say it was large and very intense.  Next, today Israel struck the largest petrochemical plant in Iran. The plant that was hit today is responsible for up to 50% of the production of petrochemicals in Iran.

 Yesterday, a U.S F-15E was shot down in Iran. One of the crew members has been rescued (by U.S Special Forces) but the other crew member has not been found yet, to the horror of many Americans, including me. During the rescue of the one crew member (the pilot) that has been found, two Blackhawk Helicopters were shot at including the one the rescued pilot was on. Several members of the crew were injured, and the other Blackhawk was damaged but landed safely outside of Iran. An A-10 Warthog was also shot down during the rescue operation. The resulting damage was so severe the pilot had to eject from the plane, The pilot landed safely on the ground, but the plane crashed into the Persian Gulf.

 ISIS has released an edition of their newsletter in which they call for attacks on churches and synagogues in several countries. The call is for this weekend, through the end of Passover on April 9. In my opinion, this call is concerning for two reasons. First, that they feel bold enough to make such a threat, and second, when the ISIS prisons in Syria were left unguarded during the offensive against the Kurds, it is believed that many of the ISIS fighters who escaped the camps left with fake passports. meaning there might be members of ISIS from the camps who are in the countries being threatened.

 I have talked a lot about the Strait of Hormuz in previous posts. My goal with this post is to briefly paint a picture of the current known facts regarding the Strait, and how it is (to a large degree) the driver of the current global oil, and gas prices. As I have said before, the Strait of Hormuz is a vital water way for the global oil market. It has been closed for nearly six weeks, and as I write this post the price of Brent crude is $106 per barrel. In addition, in the United States the average price for a gallon of gas is over $4.   So, the question is when and how will the Strait open?  Wherever you live in the world, put in the comments the price of gas in your general area.