Global turmoil & analysis

 On October 25th, Maria Machado returned to Venezuela. Machado is the leader of the opposition in the country and has been outside of Venezuela since December. By the end of the day, Machado was seen riding down a road in Caracas, while being greeted by supporters. It will be interesting to see what happens in Venezuela as Machado has called for elections to take place next summer, and much of the régime (formerly led by Maduro) is still in power.

 A young man (age 23) sits on the floor in the corner of his cell. It is January 1545, and the man has been sentenced to death for heresy (he has been in the cell for 5 months). There is no furnace in the jail, and the man is fed poorly. The man often thinks back to the day he was detained. His parents were shocked to see him being led away (never thinking him to be a criminal). When the man was sentenced to death, his parents felt ashamed of him. Ever since he was sentenced, he had been confined (alone) in the cell. On January 7, 1545, the man stood up as a guard came into the cell. The man stood still as the guard bound his wrists. Less than 5 minutes later the man was led outside. It was a cold, snowy morning, and the man looked at his parents as he reached the pyre. Once there, the guard secured the man to the pyre.  The guard set the wood around the pyre on fire. The man looked at his parents as he smelled the smoke coming up. Seconds later, the man stood calmly as his le...

 More nationwide protests are expected to take place in France on October 24th. Thousands of troops are being deployed to help the police secure the protests. In addition to the troops, 70,000 police are expected across the country including armored vehicles. Many stores in Paris are boarding up their windows, and construction crews are being told to clear their sites of possible projectiles as large riots are expected.  

 On October 21st, a Houthi missile attack occurred at King Fahid International Airport (in Dammam Saudi Arabia). The attack killed 2 people and injured 8 others.  On October 22, the United States State Department ordered non-emergency staff (and their families) to leave Saudi Arabia. The exact reason for the order is currently unknown. The developments in the first 2 paragraphs come as (on October 22nd) the price of Brent Crude Oil, reached a price of $113 per barrel.

 On October 20th, it came out that Iran, and Iraq, have signed an agreement in which Iraq will expel the Kurds from northern Iraq (which borders Iran). This is a concerning development.  The Kurds are (or at least were) allies of the United States. The Kurds do not like the Iranian regime. For reasons that should be obvious, Iran does not want the Kurds anywhere near their borders. The fact that only a month after U.S. forces withdrew from Iraq, a deal like this would be agreed to, implies that the relationship between Iraq and Iran has not changed.

 Recently a version of what is happening in Ukraine has been talked about a lot, the problem is... it is not true. In this post I am going to list the factors that actually led to the war, list a few key events throughout the war, and finish with an analysis of where we are today. In the early 20th century, the land that makes up Ukraine was incorporated into the Soviet Union. During the existence of the Soviet Union (which ended in 1991) the territory of Ukraine contained most of what Russia relied on (most Russians who fought in WW2 came from Ukraine). Ukraine became an independent country on August 24th, 1991. Fast forward 20+ years, and Russia invades, and annexes Crimea (and kept a low intensity conflict going in eastern Ukraine). In 2022 Russia launches a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with the goal of absorbing Ukraine back into Russia. The United States (along with other countries) has provided weapons, ammunition, and intelligence to Ukraine, to help the outmatched countr...

 The protests that I said (in the last post) were expected to take place in France happened, and they were awful. Over a thousand of people were arrested, and 150 officers were injured. Intense Clashes and rioting enveloped many parts of the country. I am not going to highlight specific occurrences in this post, but to give an idea of how bad it was, I watched a stream of the mayhem live pretty much the beginning of the clashes, to when they ended roughly 9 hours later. For a solid 5 hours I heard at least one piece of crowd control ordinance go off every 30 seconds.

 More protests are expected to take place across France on October 17th. Around 90 protests are expected across the country, and over 500 "actions" (such as roadblocks, and blockades). One of the most notable headlines going into the day is a large number of yellow vest protesters are expected to participate in actions across the country. Police have prohibited protesters in Paris from going to several areas of the city. No route has been agreed upon for the marches in Paris, although several concerning rumors are floating around. Between 60-110 thousand protesters are expected to participate across France, and intense urban violence is anticipated in multiple locations.  The President of France has called for calm. I would anticipate the turnout being much bigger than expected. There are a lot of people who are comparing what is expected on the 17th, to the beginning of the Yellow Vests Protests in 2018 (which turned into a revolt that lasted multiple months). 

New Years Eve 2021, a family enjoys the last day of the year together in their small village in Ukraine. This family is made up of a husband (age 32) his wife (age 30) and their twin sons (age 5). The village is located approximately 75 miles from Russia. After midnight the mood of the family starts to turn sad, as the husband is scheduled to go to a post near the border with Russia in the morning. Rumors had been floating around for weeks about a Russian military buildup near the border, but few in the village thought Russia would actually invade (including the husband, and wife). around 7 am the husband says bye to his wife, and sons (hoping in not too many days, he will comeback). February 24, one am, the husband is texting his wife about an invasion that might start soon. Around 3 30 am, the husband hurriedly texts that heavy gunfire has been reported near his position. The man's wife does not sleep that night. One of the thoughts that fills her mind, is somehow hopefully the R...

 Massive missile strikes are occurring across Ukraine as I write this post. In Kyiv 6 people have been killed today, and 600,000 people are without power. This comes as the United States has stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine and programmed the speed of drones being used by Ukraine to be too slow to attack Russia. To be frank, Ukraine cannot survive this way. A few hours ago, the President of Ukraine said that they "have been betrayed by the United States." To be honest, this is so heinous by the United States, that it is possible Ukraine might be defeated in the very near future. If the United States does not reverse course soon, this is a certainty. This a very big stain on the character of the United States.

 As I write this post, Kyiv has no electricity. This comes as Russia has struck 2 power plants in the last few hours. Additionally, west of Kharkiv Russia has fired at least 6 Iskander ballistic missiles at a combined heat/power plant in the area. This comes as some political decisions have been made in the United States in recent days, that help Russia. If Ukraine loses the war, it will be one the worst geopolitical events (for the free world) in world history.

More nationwide protests are expected to take place on October 13th, in France. In Paris two marches are expected including a "few hundred" anarchists.  There is a high potential of violence at many protests across the country. One of the two marches in Paris is expected to be banned by the police, as it is expected to end at the residence of the prime minister. The other march in Paris is expected to finish next to the national assembly (which will be in session). Keep in mind, (obviously) anarchists do not care about the law. Regardless of whether a march is banned or not, it does not guarantee that the march will not happen.

 King Khalid International Airport is the busiest airport in Saudi Arabia, and one of the busiest in the Middle East. The airport in located roughly 22 miles north of Riyadh (the country's capitol city). On October 10th, one of the terminals at King Khalid International AirPort was hit by missiles fired by the Houthis. The attack killed at least 12 and injured 309 people. Saudi Arabia has called the attack a "direct act of war," and has vowed to respond.

50 people are walking towards an open field; all of the people are from the same small village. The group is made up of all of the adults from the village, men, and women with their ages ranging from 18-65. Everyone in the group have their wrists bound (10 men with guns walk behind the group). After walking for a few miles, they arrive at the field. A short time after arriving at the field, two men take the youngest person in the group (an 18-year-old female) and put a blindfold over her eyes. A few months before the scene in the first paragraph, a country who had been helping the country where the village was located (to the shock of everyone in the village) made a deal with the country where the armed men are from. Prior to the deal, the small country with the village had been fighting a war with the country the armed men are from (for years). After the deal, the powerful country started to help the small country less and less.  Eventually, the country where the armed men were fr...

Roughly 71,000 people participated in protests across France on October 8th. By the end of the day 504 people were arrested, and 48 police officers were injured. At the Place de la Bastille approximately 24,500 protesters gathered. The gathering was calm for a while, but ultimately devolved into clashes between protesters, and police.  Protests (and clashes) are not rare at the Place de la Bastille, yet with the growing violence of these protests, the meaning of the Bastille in French history and the kind of rhetoric that is coming out of the protesters, the event on October 8th should not be overlooked. Major protects are expected across France on October 13th.

Two weeks ago, fighting resumed in Tigray (a state in Ethiopia). The conflict is not new, but what I am going to talk about in this post is new and could have big impacts outside of Tigray. Today, reports started to come out saying that troops, and weapons from Eritrea were seen moving around Tigray. This is significant because although Eritrea fought alongside Ethiopia in earlier fighting in Tigray, in recent weeks diplomatic relations between the two countries has ceased. This matters regarding the reports coming out today (about troops from Eritrea being in Tigray) because clearly, they would not fight alongside each other. If Eritrean forces are in Tigray, and Ethiopia does end up in direct combat with them, it would be a significant development for several reasons. One of the reasons such a scenario is significant is, Ethiopia and Eritrea are located in the Sahel region. The Sahel has several prominent terrorist organizations that operate in the region. One of the best environment...

 In the last post I talked about protests that were expected to take place across France on October 6th. The day turned out as expected. Roughly a quarter of high schools in France were closed on October 6th, hundreds of thousands of people participated in the protests across the country, and in multiple locations (particularly in Paris) clashes occurred between protesters, and police. I watched several hours of the protests live on "Agenda Free Tv." The intensity of the violence that I saw (especially in Paris) was such that it convinced me more than what I posed in the last post as a possibility (these protests could turn into a revolt) will end up being the case. More protests are expected on October 8th.

On October 6th (at 2pm French time) a protest march is expected to begin in Paris France. The march is one of the many protests scheduled across France as part of what is called "Act III" of the protests being led by high school students. The protests began last week and have greatly disrupted hundreds of schools across France. In addition to the disruptions, the protests have grown increasingly violent. So far, hundreds of protesters and police officers have been injured, and thousands of (mostly minor) protesters have been arrested to date. On October 6th, the protest in Paris is expected to be the largest in the country on the day. Between 20-40,000 people are expected to take part in Paris, and the police are anticipated a large amount of violence. We will see how things play out on October 6th according to the trend these protests seem to be following; I would not be surprised if this turns into the newest revolt in France. Specifically, many aspects of the current prote...

 In this post I am going to write a story that (although not necessarily true) is based on a compilation of current events in Kyiv. The purpose of this story is (as accurately as possible) to portray what life is like in Kyiv as the Russians increase their attacks. A 25-year-old woman lives in a third story apartment with her 3-year-old son. The apartment they live in is in a high rise in Kyiv. Like many young Ukrainian moms, her husband is in the military (and has been since the war began. On one night (after she tucks her son in) she is standing at the counter (in the kitchen area) when she hears a huge bang and gets knocked unconscious. She wakes up to a severe pain in her legs. When she opens her eyes, she sees a large fire burning where her son's room is. When she tries to get up, she realizes that her legs (and most of her torso) are buried in rubble. She hears sirens outside. She hopes they can save her son. When the first responders get to what is left of the building, a se...

 On October 2nd, it was announced that the Polish Ministry of National Defense was working on a new bill on the state's preparedness for war. The goal of the bill is to bridge the gap between peacetime, and formal martial law. The Mayor of Kyiv said on October 2nd that "the city (moving forward) will not be possible to live in as in peacetime." The statement comes as Russia is drastically increasing their strikes on the capitol city.

 Depending on where you are in the world when I post this, there are roughly 90 days left in the year. In this post, I am going to describe something that was said on October 1st that makes that number (90) relevant. On October 1st, the foreign minister of Poland said that Russia is preparing something "very big" this year. He went on to say Russia might conduct a false flag on itself (as a pretext for mobilization). He also said that Narva (the third largest city in Estonia) parts of Latvia, and a land bridge to Kaliningrad (through Lithuania) are potential "flashpoints."